Market opening: what to expect for the stock market and exchange rate in Brazil this Thursday

The Copom decided to increase the Selic rate by 1.5 pp, something expected by the market, which should continue to reflect this meeting. At 9:36 am, the Ibovespa Futures retreated 1.09%, while the dollar futures rose 1.04%, to R$ 5.5980.

In the United States, the balance sheet season maintains a positive mood on the American stock exchanges. Dow Jones futures advanced 0.21%, while Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 futures rose 0.60% and 0.34%, respectively.

Brazil recorded on Wednesday 433 new deaths from Covid-19, which brings the total number of fatal victims of the disease in the country to 606,679, informed the Ministry of Health. There were also 17,184 new cases of coronaviruses , with the total number of infections confirmed in the country advancing to 21.766,168, added the folder.

The Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) decided to raise the Selic rate by 1.5 pp, to 7.75% per year. This is the biggest rise in interest rates made at a meeting since 2002. As the main justification for the increase, the Committee pointed to inflationary pressures linked to the fiscal crisis.

The Committee has already contracted another increase of 1.5 pp for the next meeting, entering a “contracting territory” in the coming years, due to the trajectory of inflation. For 2022, the Copom projects inflation of 4.1%, above the 3.5% target, and points out that fiscal uncertainties could accelerate the rise in prices.

“Despite the more positive performance of public accounts, the Committee assesses that recent questions regarding the fiscal framework have increased the risk of unanchoring inflation expectations, ” says the official Copom statement, in an indirect mention of the possibility of a hole in the ceiling of spending.

News of the day

ECB – The European Central Bank (ECB) left monetary policy unchanged on Thursday , as widely expected. The bank reaffirmed its plan to continue buying bonds to set borrowing costs near record lows and also promised to keep interest rates low for years to come — a pledge increasingly contested by investors skeptical of the ECB’s narrative that high inflation it is temporary.

IGP-M – The General Price Index – Market (IGP-M) ended the month of October with an increase of 0.64%, according to the Brazilian Institute of Economics of the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV/Ibre).

Unemployment Insurance – 281,000 initial claims were filed for unemployment insurance in the US, against 291,000 last week. The market forecast was of 290 thousand orders.

Gas allowance – The Chamber approved the bill that creates a gas allowance to subsidize the price of cylinders for low-income families. Authored by deputy Carlos Zarattini (PT-SP), the text had already been approved by deputies and received approval from the Senate. With the changes proposed by the senators, the bill returned to the final vote in the Chamber, was approved in a symbolic vote and now goes to presidential approval.

5G – The National Telecommunications Agency (Anatel) updated this Wednesday, 27, the estimated values ​​with the auction of 5G. If all the tracks are sold, the event should move R$ 50 billion. Of this total, BRL 47 billion refer to commitments to be assumed by the winners with the implementation of networks and BRL 3 billion in payment of grants that go to the public coffers.

Re-election President Jair Bolsonaro said on Wednesday that he will decide in March of next year whether he will run for a second term.

agenda of the day

Jair Bolsonaro – Meeting with Deputy Marcos Pereira (Republicanos/SP), National President of the Republicans; Meeting with Pedro Cesar Sousa, Deputy Chief for Legal Affairs of the General Secretariat of the Presidency.

Paulo Guedes – Meeting with the Special Secretary for Productivity, Employment and Competitiveness, Carlos Da Costa; Meeting with the Special Secretary for Foreign Trade and International Affairs, Roberto Fendt.

Campos Neto – Meeting with senator Kátia Abreu (PP/TO) and representatives of the Ministry of Economy and Banco do Brasil (SA: BBAS3 ); Meeting with Marcos Aurélio Madureira da Silva, President, and Wagner Ferreira, Legal and Institutional Director, of the Brazilian Association of Electric Energy Distributors (ABRADEE).